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Residents of the Big Apple will learn who will be their next mayor this election day, in a race that will decide who runs and protects the nation's most populous metropolis at a moment when the former president has vowed to send armed forces to the urban center.

In this context, New York has experienced a race for mayor that has matched two distinctly opposing Democratic figures against each other. The contest has turned into an increasingly bitter face-off, marked by alleged racial bias and Islamophobia, but it is the political differences between the two leading candidates that could have major implications for how the party performs in next year's congressional races.

The Progressive Challenger

In the progressive corner is the democratic socialist, the 34-year-old progressive candidate whose rapid ascent and people-powered movement has brought global notice. On the establishment side is Andrew Cuomo, the former Democratic New York governor now campaigning independently – and benefiting from the backing of wealthy contributors and corporations.

As the election approaches, it is Mamdani, the one-time underdog who beat his opponent in the Democratic primary who is firmly installed as the leading candidate. Mamdani, who has run on a agenda of affordability and promised to halt rent increases for about two million New Yorkers, has outpaced his rival by double-digits across all surveys taken in October, and it is very much the progressive's election to lose.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, the former governor, who resigned as governor in recent years amid accusations of misconduct, has stated clearly he will battle to the finish, and not necessarily in an fair manner. He has criticized his opponent's objectives as unrealistic, and in the final stretch laughed as a broadcaster made Islamophobic remarks about the candidate, who is a Muslim. Two weeks ago, the independent was strongly criticized as racist after posting an artificial intelligence video that featured a slew of racist stereotypes and showed his opponent releasing a convicts.

It's been a particularly ugly conclusion to an race that could be critical to the direction that the party, struggling in its response to Trump's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the near future.

Broader Consequences

If Mamdani secures a clear victory, the party establishment who have refused to endorse his bid will be forced to reckon with a platform that has resonated with Americans' anger at economic disparity, soaring price rises and the establishment. It would be difficult for Chuck Schumer and the House leader not to adopt at least some of Mamdani's progressive proposals about affordability, given the fresh face has created an enthusiasm within the party perhaps not seen since Bernie Sanders ran for president in 2016.

However, should Cuomo, who had been predicted to win easily in the Democratic primary, achieve a surprising comeback win, it could cement the party's existing approach of considered, uninspiring opposition – a tactic that has angered the party base. A NYC rejection of the progressive's progressive, positive message could convince party leaders that the wisest course is to remain in the center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the Democratic party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Voter Enthusiasm

Voters in New York appear to favor the Mamdani vision. Polls show that his backers are far more enthusiastic about their candidate than Cuomo backers, something that has been evident throughout the campaign. The candidate's engaging content on social media, his hopeful outlook for the city and his willingness to actually get out and meet people in the metropolis has attracted an army of more than 50,000 supporters, many of them youth or new participants.

Personal Attacks

Yet, Cuomo, in his late sixties, continues to fight. And with the risks against him, the former governor has resorted to ugly messaging in recent weeks.

After spending months launching various attacks at Mamdani to see what might resonate, the independent has narrowed his focus on targeting Mamdani personally. He has called his rival, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an “extremist”, and popped up on Fox Business for an discussion with a rightwing host, where the candidate asserted the city “will not survive” Mamdani as city leader. It reached a nadir last week, when Cuomo laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said Mamdani would “cheer” another terrorist attack.

Campaign Dynamics

This strategy mirrors much of what the former president, who has sent the military reserves to Washington DC and threatened to take similar action to New York, has said about the progressive, and perhaps that is expected. A group of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who donated to the Republican in the last presidential race, have invested heavily into trying to get Cuomo elected, as other powerful voices have urged Curtis Sliwa to withdraw from the race.

Political Histories

As far as the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are worried, it should never have come to this point. When the assemblyman, one of 150 New York state assembly members, started his mayoral bid in October 2024, not many had heard of him, and in reality, few even paid attention.

The former governor, by contrast, eased his way into the contest in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the political heavyweight who apparently held every edge. The quintessential political insider, he had wed a Kennedy and served in Bill Clinton’s administration. He became the state's leader in over a decade ago, 17 years after his father, Mario Cuomo, stepped down from the identical role.

Mamdani, who was voted in to the state legislature in recently, does not have the same political heritage. But his dedication to providing no-cost transit and free childcare – along with the rent control promise – offer a more positive vision of the city's direction than his opponent's pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his promise to increase police presence.

Campaign Controversies

Still, Mamdani has encountered some challenges in the final phase, after video surfaced suggesting him implying the NYPD and the IDF were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the NYPD is on your neck, it’s been laced by the IDF,” Mamdani said in the recording, recorded at a Democratic Socialists of America gathering in 2023. Mamdani, a longtime critic of the Israeli government who has said the nation is engaging in atrocities in the Palestinian territory, indicated he was criticizing joint training exercises between the NYPD and IDF.

Powerful Moment

With the election nearing, the candidate appears to have won empathy and backing, however, for his reaction to his opponent's increasing rhetoric.

Mamdani addressed Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an emotional video. In it, Mamdani recalled how, when he first ran for state assembly, a Muslim uncle advised to him that he did not have to disclose about his Muslim faith. It was a lesson, he said, that many local Muslims had been taught “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the margins of our city. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could express their full identities, and that if we were to step out from those shadows, then it is in those shadows that we must set aside our beliefs.”

Addressing the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has alleged Mamd