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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that a framework for a ceasefire agreement negotiated with US officials could be finalised in a matter of days. Following this, U.S. representatives will present the documentation to the Kremlin.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Major Headway, But Key Hurdles Persist

Following extensive talks in Berlin, US officials indicated on Monday that around “90%” of the contentious issues between Russia and Ukraine had been settled. Despite this optimistic assessment, the path to ending the war is not guaranteed, especially given Russia's lack of participation from the ongoing discussions.

Early Tuesday morning, the Ukrainian president said that the American legislature was anticipated to vote on defense assurances and that a complete package of documents could be prepared “imminently.” He added that, the United States would hold consultations with Russian representatives, leading to summit-level talks as soon as this coming weekend.

Security Guarantees and International Support

“We are counting on five documents. Several pertain to binding security pledges: formally ratified, that is, voted on and approved by the United States Congress,” the president commented to the press. He stated that these guarantees would “reflect article 5” of the Nato alliance.

On Monday, American representatives did not provide precise information regarding the probable makeup of the defense package or the consequences if Moscow attempted to seize more land after a peace deal. They did, however, confirm that the U.S. has no plans to place boots on the ground in the country.

Heads of state from the UK, France, Germany and eight other European countries issued a joint statement that forces belonging to a “allied coalition” could “assist in the rebuilding of Ukraine’s forces, in securing Ukraine’s skies, and in ensuring maritime security, potentially by conducting operations within Ukraine.”

They stopped short, however, of proposing these measures would constitute guarantees matching Nato’s article 5. Furthermore, there is scant indication that Russia is anywhere close to agreeing to the type of package being negotiated between Washington and Kyiv.

Kremlin Response and Land Issue

The following day, the Russian government stated it had not seen the specifics of the plans for security guarantees. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergey Ryabkov, declared that Russia would not agree to forces of Nato countries operating in Ukrainian territory “no matter what.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian team and US negotiators remains the territorial question. A key demand centers on Kyiv ceding the parts of the Donbas region it currently controls, while Ukraine wants to freeze the lines. “Talks continue on the territorial issue. As is known, it is one of the key issues. At this point, there is no agreement on it yet,” Zelenskyy said following the Berlin discussions.

American mediators, led by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has proposed a middle-ground proposal. Under this plan would see Ukrainian forces pull back, but Russian troops would not advance, with the resulting zone established as “an open economic area.” Moscow has indicated it could use police and national guard formations instead of the army in such an area, implying it would still seek to control the territory.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘special economic zone’ does not mean controlled by Russia. Not legally or in practice will we recognise Donbas – its temporarily occupied part – as Russian. Categorically,” said President Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Possible Scenarios

It is not clear how Moscow and Kyiv will resolve the territorial issue. Zelenskyy has earlier mentioned that a compromise solution like a free economic zone could be theoretically possible if the Ukrainian people voted for it in a national vote. The major impediment is likely to be when the proposals are put to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has shown no indication he is prepared to concede on his military objectives.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will end up with precisely the situation we are encountering on our flight right now – turbulence,” commented Zelenskyy, recording the comments as his aircraft departed from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will increase sanction pressure and supply more weapons if they reject the deal. In my view, that would be a reasonable expectation from us to the United States,” he added.